Don't have an account? Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!
Already have an account? Log In
The Scottish Open was another episode of Runaway Bride, starring former bridesmaid, Xander Schauffele, winning his second tournament in as many starts. The flood gates appear to be open and confidence, poise, and bottled-up talent seems to be gushing through the streets of St. Andrews as he eyes his first major and third consecutive win.
This has a very similar feeling to when we did the Masters writeup and Scottie Scheffler had just rattled off three wins entering the first major of the year. Xander also has three wins on the season, with one of them coming in a team event, but the trophy cabinet has three new tenants, and he stands a fantastic chance to add a fourth.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver", all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
St. Andrews Links (Old Course), Par: 70, Yardage: 7,189, Greens: Fescue/Bent/Poa annua, Designer: Est. 1552
We return to St. Andrews after the 2015 Open and as this course is a regular part of The Open rotation, we have a reasonable understanding of what to expect here. With the course designed almost half a millennia ago, the modern technology of the game has proven tough for St. Andrews to fight off, but any sort of strong wind puts Mike Tyson in the corner of St. Andrews, which, unfortunately does not appear to be the case as of Tuesday morning.
Reports from the venue predict a very dry, very hard golf course. This exacerbates the volatility of the many mounds, bumps, and slopes that golfers will have to navigate. Driving distance will not be a necessity, but with elite length off the tee, a lot of fairway bunkers are simply not a factor. With the course playing shorter, wedges will be in the hands of the majority of golf shots, making proximity numbers inside of 150 yards more important this week.
With massive greens putting an emphasis on three-putt avoidance, golfers will almost certainly find themself with a putt that flirts with 100 feet in length at some point this week. If an errant shot does miss the green, pot bunkers and slopes will require creativity and a deft touch around the greens, with a putter often being the club of choice from off the green. This is another reason why three-putt avoidance is a key stat this week. If winds remain calm over the duration of the week, birdie makers will frequent the top of the leaderboard.
Below are the settings for the model:
Our betting strategy for outrights is rather conservative, requiring a winner once every eight events in order to break even. From a dollar standpoint, we are betting $13 of our $100 to net $110 or more.
Xander Schauffele enters the week playing the best golf of his life and with so many appetizing studs at the top of the board, his momentum and incredible recent form was ultimately what guided us to the "Scotty at the Masters" decision. Xander is also an incredible course fit, with ample distance off the tee, sensational wedge play, and an incredible short game that is headlined by one of the best three putt avoidance rates on tour. Everything about his game sets up for this golf course and we are putting our chips on the hottest golfer on tour right now, at a price that seems extremely reasonable.
Cameron Smith ($4.09 @ +2800 on DraftKings (18% boost = +3300))
To quote his writeup from last week, "On a course where off the tee mishaps are seemingly punished much less than usual, you play Cameron Smith. The rest of his game is simply exceptional and is hopefully the perfect fit for..." St. Andrews, "where he can lean on his immaculate iron play, world class short game, and elite birdie or better percentage". His irons have cooled off over the last few rounds, but he has been striking them well enough, for long enough, that a bounce back in that department will not come as a surprise. What gives us even more belief that his irons will return to form is the fact that he is one of the best wedge players in the world, which we should see a lot of this week. If the wind remains calm and birdies start flying around the Old Course, hopefully Smith's wispy mullet doesn't get in the way of too many photos of him and the Claret Jug.
Bradley had an abysmal time at the Scottish last week, and it was mostly due to his putting, which has seen some regression in the last few rounds. However, his iron play has been sensational recently, leading the field in approach over the last 12 rounds, which should give Keegan ample opportunities to sink a lot of birdie putts while keeping himself out of trouble from tee to green. At 125-1 Bradley is one of the most mis-priced golfers in this field, as he is also inside the top-10 in three putt avoidance, which is going to be an essential skill on these massive greens. If his putting bounces back and his irons continue to sizzle, 125-1 seems like the perfect sprinkle on a golfer who should probably find himself closer to 50-1 on this course.
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription?
Like what you read today? You can show your support for Byron by using the discount code MANIAC when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry. Spencer is absolutely crushing out of the gate in 2022!
Hayden Buckley -118 over Vincent Whaley gets to the window. @RotoBaller 4-0-1 in-tournament H2Hs this week 9-1-1 on the season. https://t.co/bGvwKIWIBu pic.twitter.com/se5s4mWjPi
From a dollar standpoint, we are betting a total of $12 on four guys to net $110 or more. The below image are all the golfers who average more than two strokes in round one this year.
Xander Schauffele ($4.50 @ +2800 on Caesars) Cameron Smith ($3.25 @ +4000 on DraftKings) Joaquin Niemann ($1.50 @ +6000 on PointsBet)
Keegan Bradley got the boot from the First Round Leader card. If he wins this thing it will be by stringing together four solid rounds. Joaquin Niemann, on the other hand, leads the field in round one scoring, averaging +3.33 strokes gained on the field in round one this year. Getting one of the best round-one scorers on tour at 60-1 is an opportunity that seems tough to pass up.
Will Zalatoris does his best putting early in the tournament and has the length and ball striking ability to lead round one in yet another major.
At the time of writing this article BetMGM had no placing bets available, although I had seen them at some point this week. Please use a book that pays ties in full, as long as the odds are within 30 points of what we have below. We have 10 placing bets this week, with seven of them in the top-40 market.
Justin Thomas (T20: $7 @ +115 on FanDuel) Cameron Smith (T20: $7 @ +150 on FanDuel) Sam Burns (T20: $7 @ +220 on FanDuel) Talor Gooch (T40: $7 @ +160 on FanDuel) Kevin Na (T40: $7 @ +280 on FanDuel) Seamus Power (T40: $7 @ +105 on FanDuel) Cameron Tringale (T40: $7 @ +185 on FanDuel) Keegan Bradley (T40: $7 @ +140 on FanDuel) Webb Simpson (T40: $7 @ +185 on FanDuel) Emilliano Grillo (T40: $7 @ +280 on FanDuel)
Rory McIlroy (T5: $5 @ +270 on FanDuel)
A major plus Rory McIlroy equals a top 5. He has two top fives in his three majors this year, with the third being an eighth-place finish.
Good luck this week and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
Congrats @tenndolly2 ??? Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt
All new sign-ups get a free year of RotoBaller's Premium Pass for all sports ($450 value)! Check out all of the sportsbooks and their bonus offers:
Welcome back RotoBallers! We are just a few days in after the All Star break, and we'll have a loaded week of games coming up. As always, we are here with our starting pitcher starts and sits series to help you set those winning lineups for the week ahead! For those who are not familiar,... Read More
Welcome fellow RotoBallers, as we enter Week 18 of the fantasy baseball season. Last week's list featured players like Luis Garcia, Brady Singer, Alex Cobb and Domingo German off the waiver wire, and we're back at it for more. Just like any other week, we have put together a full assortment of fantasy baseball waiver wire... Read More
All other Premium Tools can be accessed on the premium dashboard. Just because the season started a week later than usual doesn't mean that the meat of August won't feel like crunch time for your fantasy squads. I don't advocate that anyone panic, but you need to honestly evaluate whether you can continue holding onto... Read More
Welcome back to The Cut List. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat... Read More
Welcome back! It's Week 18 of our fantasy baseball Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Pickups series! We went through a tough stretch there where there was really nobody on waivers inspiring any confidence. We are really seeing this week how soft the ownership levels have gotten as the season gets closer to its end. Plenty of... Read More
We have completed another week of MLB action, making it time to make more waiver wire moves as we head into Week 18. With more and more injuries and players slumping, it is time to start changing our rosters. I want to emphasize that it is still not time to panic about your core players.... Read More
Welcome back RotoBallers to Week 18 of the MLB season, and another edition of our first base and third base waiver wire pickups. We're approaching the home stretch of fantasy baseball and, as trade deadlines pass, the waiver wire could be your best chance to improve your roster for a championship push. Let’s keep rolling... Read More
We're officially in the dog days of August which means two things; fantasy football prep has begun, and it's time to lock down a fantasy baseball championship. Here at RotoBaller, we can help with both, but in this space, we're obviously focusing on the latter with a fresh batch of 2B and SS options to... Read More
Welcome to Week 18 and our fantasy baseball waiver wire hitters. We'll be doing this roundup of points leagues every week here at RotoBaller, with waiver wire targets and streaming pitchers being evaluated in terms of the different scoring systems of ESPN, Yahoo!, CBS, and Fantrax. Player values can vary wildly from platform to platform,... Read More
Welcome to Week 18 and our fantasy baseball waiver wire pitchers. We'll be doing this roundup of points leagues every week here at RotoBaller, with waiver wire targets and streaming pitchers being evaluated in terms of the different scoring systems of ESPN, Yahoo!, CBS, and Fantrax. Player values can vary wildly from platform to platform,... Read More
We have completed another week of MLB action, making it time to make more waiver wire moves heading into Week 18. However, things will be slightly different for our weekly look into the high-stakes NFBC landscape. For those who do not know, in the NFBC, there are no IL spots and trades, making waiver moves... Read More
After an absolutely exhilarating trade deadline, the entire landscape of Major League Baseball has changed, more so than previous trade deadlines; to be honest, even now, I still am struggling to adjust to all of this recent player movement. Now, it's time for a very exciting playoff push. Fantasy baseball teams are built through the... Read More
We've finally seen Brady Singer, Johnny Cueto, and Cole Irvin graduate from this list with rostered rates of just over 50%. That leaves many familiar faces and iffy options but also some pitchers who have made their way down to streaming status after being fantasy rotation pieces much of the season. Let's investigate further. This... Read More
Welcome back RotoBallers! The 2022 NFL Draft is officially in the books, and now the real fun begins. Below you will see our NFL team's updated 2022 fantasy football rookie rankings -- the post-NFL Draft edition. These rookie rankings factor in the NFL Draft results, the landing spots of these NFL rookies, and their potential... Read More
Welcome back RotoBallers to more fantasy football rankings! The NFL season is creeping up on us, and we're back with our updated 2022 fantasy football PPR rankings (top 490). These consensus staff rankings are put together by Nick Mariano, Pierre Camus, Scott Engel and Brandon Murchison. You'll also find some recent fantasy football news and NFL headlines,... Read More
The Miami Dolphins added several new faces to their running back room in the offseason, signing free agents Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert, and Sony Michel to compete with incumbent Myles Gaskin. Miami's offense has a chance to be much improved with offensive-minded Mike McDaniel taking over as the team's head coach. McDaniel previously served as... Read More
“Don’t pick me up in fantasy no more; I really don’t care." Those were the exact words spoken by Philadelphia Eagles running back Miles Sanders in a late-June interview with John Clark of NBC Sports Philadelphia. Miles Sanders didn’t hold back responding to fantasy managers’ criticism of the Eagles’ offense.Listen to the full interview with... Read More
The running back position has been evolving in recent years. While having an elite back is a great way to usually win a fantasy championship, it is important to understand the shift taking place in the NFL landscape when it comes to running backs. Teams are continuing to value the running back position less and... Read More
Joe Burrow carried fantasy managers during last season's fantasy playoffs. He was the QB1 overall from Weeks 15-17, scoring an average of 28.6 points per game. With many drafting him later in drafts, Burrow supported those who took the shot on him to a fantasy title, while others were even able to pick him up... Read More
Training camps are underway which means it is finally time to start getting ready for fantasy drafts for the 2022 NFL season. One of the best advantages you can have in a fantasy season is correctly identifying late-round sleepers that provide fantasy value throughout the season. These are typically players that have concerns or questions... Read More
Welcome to our fantasy football Breakouts, Busts, and Locks, a series on RotoBaller where our writers look at three key players on each NFL team. Today, we're talking about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa was set to rebuild this year after Tom Brady retired, but then Brady went out and unretired, because of course Tom... Read More
All other Premium Tools can be accessed on the premium dashboard. Prepare your graph paper and set up those spreadsheets for the entertaining format that is salary cap fantasy football. Also known as auctions, this is where your draft position doesn't lock you into a certain tier of players and it's all about how you... Read More
It has been a tumultuous sixteen months for San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, dating back to the 2021 NFL draft when the 49ers went all-in to draft quarterback Trey Lance third overall. After besting the rookie in training camp last year and holding him off all season, it appears the end of the Garoppolo... Read More
There have been a lot of changes this offseason with the Seattle Seahawks. The Russell Wilson era is over, for example. Another change is that the team drafted Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker III in the second round of the 2022 NFL draft. Does Walker being a high draft pick mean he'll start for... Read More
All other Premium Tools can be accessed on the premium dashboard. The term "Sleeper" is thrown around more haphazardly than a Mitchell Trubisky out route, but there's no doubting its place in our fantasy lexicon. I do think that everyone that uses it then needs to define what it means within the context of the... Read More
There are a lot of different ways to play dynasty leagues, which is what makes them so fun. You can go all-in for a title, trading away future picks for studs. Or you can stash young players, acquire draft picks, and go into rebuilding mode. Below, you'll find five young players who might not belong... Read More